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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-04-06T14:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-04-06T14:00Z
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-09T14:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-04-07T00:20Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 470
Longitude (deg): 19
Latitude (deg): 34
Half-angular width (deg): 35

Notes: MOSWOC deterministic ENLIL run has this as a narrow miss north of the ecliptic, however the error bounds in the derived cone angle allow for a narrow glancing blow. MOSWOC ENLIL Ensemble not available at time of writing.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 46.62 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-04-07T15:23Z

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